Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: East region

East region

Best seed outlook: As stated by the FiveThirtyEight model, high seed Duke gets the best chance of advancing to the Final Four in the whole area (53 percent likelihood ) as well as the best odds of winning the national title (19 percent).
The Blue Devils are led by four soon-to-be first-round draft selections, including Zion Williamson, among the greatest abilities in recent memory. Duke is a walking highlight reel to the offensive end and much stingier on protection than many might realize. This is among Mike Krzyzewski’s most-balanced teams and projects to become his first since 2010 to rank inside the top six at Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. That team won the national title.1
This team lacks, however, is touch along the perimeter. Duke shoots a grisly 30.2 percent from beyond the arc, the worst mark one of tournament-qualifying teams. Within an offensive age increasingly dominated by space and perimeter scoring, the Blue Devils could match the trend punishing the rim.
On the other side of the region is the winner of the Big Ten conference championship, Michigan State. As their benefit, the No. 2 Spartans have the honour of a possible matchup from the top overall seed in the Elite Eight. Head coach Tom Izzo was none too happy. The Spartans are pummeled by accidents but remain among the most balanced teams in the nation, ranking within the top eight in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 4 Virginia Tech. Led by the celebrity pairing of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the Hokies are a balanced squad which ranks among Pomeroy’s Top 25 teams on both offense and defense. Although they’ve dropped eight occasions, only two of those were by double-digits. Virginia Tech also has a not-altogether-unfriendly draw, with extremely winnable opening matches against Saint Louis (87% ) and the Mississippi State-Liberty winner (63 percent) before most likely running to Duke’s juggernaut. We provide the Hokies a respectable 25 percent chance against the Blue Devils — along with a 54 percent chance against individuals emerges from the base of the area if they do manage to knock off Duke.
Do not wager : No. 3 LSU. With coach Will Wade embroiled in a pay-for-play scandal and his group likely overvalued as a 3-seed, the Bayou Bengals may be ripe for an upset in this particular tournament. They ranked only 18th in Pomeroy’s ratings — about the caliber of a No. 5 seed — thanks in large part to a defense which didn’t even crack the country’s top 60 in corrected efficacy. (This showed up at the 51 second-half points that they allowed to Florida while shedding their first game of the SEC tournament.) Their NCAA course isn’t very simple, either: Yale is no pushover as a No. 14 seed, nor will be possible second-round opponent Maryland, and we all give the Tigers a mere 26 percent likelihood of beating Michigan State if the groups meet at the Sweet Sixteen. That is easily the lowest-rated top-three seed in the area.
Cinderella see: No. 11 Belmont. The East is top-heavy, together with Duke and Michigan State soaking up most of the Last Four odds. However, the Bruins are an intriguing lower-seeded team because of an impressive crime led by do-everything swingman Dylan Windler. According to Pomeroy, Belmont ranks 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (and second nationwide in raw points per game behind Gonzaga), whereas Windler was among just three players nationwide to average 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Although the Bruins do have to acquire a play-in game against Temple only to make the area of 64 — we give them a 59 percent chance — they would have an extremely aggressive 39 percent likelihood of upsetting Maryland in the first round and a much better chance against the LSU/Yale winner.
Player to watch: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Three decades back, zzo stated he thought his 6-foot-1 freshman would be Michigan State’s best passer since Magic Johnson. The Spartans’ do-everything point guard — one of the best facilitators in the nation — is supporting his trainer’s comment. Only Murray State’s Ja Morant, a surefire lottery pick in this year’s draft, has a higher assist speed than Winston (46.0 percent). And behind Winston, the Spartans help on the maximum speed of field goals in the nation.
The junior also appears to be Izzo’s top scorer and one of the country’s top perimeter threats, shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc. As harms have relentlessly sapped the Spartans of their on-court creation, Winston has raised his game to compensate. As he put it to The Athletic,”I have to do a lot for my own team to win.”
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Central Florida over No. 8 VCU (47 percent); No. 11 Belmont* over No. 6 Maryland (39 percent); No. 10 Minnesota over No. 7 Louisville (34 percent)

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